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2009-05-27 (Wed)

Δten / Δ10 / delta10

May 27th, 2009 by Gavin

Many late night discussions over the last year from FOWA, IT@Cork, eTech, Green:net to Geekyoto, and with the AMEE team have led me to think on topics like

  • “digital inheritance”
    (e.g. what if you could inherit your grandfather’s iPod?)
  • dematerialisation
    (digital products and products transforming into services)
  • desiring what we need
    (as opposed to the consumer movement that drove us from a needs-based culture to a desire-based culture)
  • modelling flow rather than inflation
  • and change and adaptation in an elastic society
    (to redefine the notion of “growth”)

Far, far too much to try and summarise here, but hopefully good springboards for discussion. A recurring theme is the transformation from products to services  (eg. the instant car rental schemes where you can rent for 30 mins). Digital music has already dematerialised the physical product of music to replace CDs.

Inspired by the powers of ten, I’ve been wondering how in the world might make the 90% reduction in CO2/GHGs that’s required to address climate change. This is an order-of-magnitude change in the way we currently live.

We need to all make “powers of ten” changes to our lives, from the CO2 intensity of our power production, to the way we relate to products and services.

So, to my latest call to action…

“Turn every product into a service for 10 people”

I’ve christened this Δten / Δ10 / Delta Ten, so it can be talked about in those management consulting meetings where (Six Sigma) is mentioned.

In fact, maybe Delta Ten should be an add-on to Six Sigma?

“Delta Ten seeks to improve the sustainability of process outputs by identifying and removing the causes of inefficiencies (errors) and variation in manufacturing and business processes, and extends this to usage patterns (e.g. resource sharing and re-use), consumption and waste, by using strong reductionist techniques to diminish the use of energy and materials by a factor of ten.”

  • delta 1 = 10% efficiency increase (10% reduction in materials, increase in energy efficiency, or energy consumption through re-use)
  • delta 9 = 90% efficiency increase (90% reduction in materials, increase in energy efficiency, or energy consumption through re-use)
  • delta 10 = The process is rendered wholly and demonstrably sustainable through the effective and credible management of resources (e.g. renewable energy, managed forestry, effective waste management, and cradle-to-cradle/biomimetics).

A delta 10 means you have created an environmentally-intelligent service, not a product.

Anyone like to help?

2009-05-8 (Fri)

Possible futures?

May 8th, 2009 by Gavin

A better voting version of this

 

Online Surveys & Market Research

2008-11-28 (Fri)

The Climate Change Act

November 28th, 2008 by Gavin

Below are some highlights from a great summary on the 2degrees site (which requires registration and I’d recommend if you want to get involved).

I’m just back from IT@Cork  where amongst many things I learned that Ireland has one of the most advanced electricity grids in the world – they’re very close to being able to execute Demand Response which, if implemented at scale (internationally), would have a massive impact on energy management, efficiency and reduction. The UK Act will help move this agenda (and others) forward not just in the UK, but internationally.

Credit: Allen Shaw

“The Climate Change Act 2008 is a historic piece of legislation. It is the first of its kind anywhere in the world and, if successful, a model likely to be replicated in other jurisdictions.

A key element of the legislation is the provision for the carbon reduction commitment which this network is all about understanding – and includes the statutory powers to, for instance, develop UK centred carbon trading to fulfil the obligations within the CRC

… the scale up in the deployment of renewables is extremely aggressive and presents significant investment opportunities.

One of the most valuable features of the new Act is the greater certainty on strategy provided by the requirement to specify three five year carbon budgets that will be legally binding and scrutinized by a powerful Climate Change Committee. As the Minister of State for the Environment, Phil Woolas stated:

“The Bill establishes legally binding long-term targets and medium-term budgets to provide greater clarity for UK industry, and that will enable businesses to plan effectively and invest in the technology that is required to move towards a low-carbon economy and to reap the potential economic benefits that are on offer. It will ensure that we adapt to unavoidable climate change as well.”

The Act in more detail:

The Climate Change Act focuses on a number of policy areas:

  • Energy efficiency with the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) as flagship policy
  • Renewables expansion (increased ten fold by 2020)
  • Transport policy
  • Low carbon technology
  • Zero carbon buildings
  • Public awareness and mobilization
  • Adaptation

The calendar of activities is:

  • 1 December, 2008 the new Climate Change Committee (CCC) delivers advice for the first three carbon budgets.
  • 2009 budget first three carbon budgets delivered.
  • Mid 2009 detailed proposals presented on carbon budgets.
  • September 2009 Climate Change Committee annual report.
  • January 2010 government publishes first response to CCC report.

Key features include:

  • 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 (26% reduction by 2020).
  • All primary greenhouse gases to be included (check)
  • A carbon reduction commitment on businesses with half hourly metered consumption > 6,000MWh / year with support for emissions trading
  • Provision for inclusion of aviation and international shipping in climate policy.
  • Restrictions (amounts still to be determined) on the amount of carbon reductions that can be met by credits earned overseas.
  • A Climate Change Committee convened and empowered to advise, scrutinize and report – and hold the government to account.
  • Five year carbon budgets to be published three periods at a time – these are legally binding on government.
  • Government to report at least five yearly on the degree to which the UK is at risk from climate change.
  • Statutory powers to require public bodies and utilities to take action on adaptation.

Other powers bundled with the legislation:

  • Provision to enforce charging for single use carrier bags
  • Provision for variable charging of domestic waste
  • Amendments to the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

2008-11-21 (Fri)

Soundcloud Terms – more rights fuzziness

November 21st, 2008 by Gavin

I’ve been a SoundCloud member since Feb 2008. My most recent login threw up a “we have new T+Cs” message with no option to continue unless you said yes. Here’s the standard stuff

1.  USER hereby grants SOUNDCLOUD and its successors and assigns a worldwide, perpetual, non-exclusive, irrevocable, royalty-free, fully paid up, license to use, copy, transmit or otherwise distribute, publicly perform, digitally perform, publicly display, distribute, stream, download and/or otherwise make USER’s Content available to other users of SOUNDCLOUD’s Website and Services.
2. USER also grants each and every other registered user of SOUNDCLOUD’s Website a worldwide, perpetual, non-exclusive, irrevocable, royalty-free, fully paid up, license to use, copy, transmit or otherwise distribute, publicly perform, digitally perform, publicly display, distribute, stream, download USER’s content and/or otherwise to make USER’s Content available to other users of SOUNDCLOUD’s Website and Services as set forth herein.

Which is all very predictable and quite hard to avoid if you do anything online – the usual definition of “Service” as “anything we want” is normal, if questionable. Now here’s the interesting bit;

3. This license does not grant SOUNDCLOUD the right to sell USER’s Content or otherwise distribute it outside of SOUNDCLOUD’s Website or Services, provided however, that streaming of Content on third party Websites via embedded widgets or the SOUNCLOUD Application Programming Interface (API) or similar tools shall not be deemed a distribution outside of SOUNDCLOUD’s Website or Service.

which on the surface looks necessesary for them to offer an API, however the way it’s worded means that they are explicitly carving out the ability to distribute USER’s Content via the API… and who’s to say they can’t charge for ads on such streaming (and you’d expect the sites embedding the streams to sell ads). Another good example of the deal-flow from £ to content-producer still not being realised.

2008-08-4 (Mon)

Can’t everyone define the future?

August 4th, 2008 by Gavin

At least once a year I refer someone I meet to Danny’s superb piece on Wired UK.

I wanted to write about this now, partly because I’m embarking on a new venture, partly because there is a another bubble emerging, but mostly because I’m reminded of the “global coincidence of desires” that Danny spotted in 1994.

An amazing part of what Danny captured was what it felt like at that time: the genuine, emotive belief by an army of people that they could change the world (and many did), and how at a time when the nature of a website was something we were all trying to work out – that individual decisions fundamentally affected the architecture and building blocks that shape what we do now. Aside from the gold-rush, the underlying story of world-changing actions.

I was fortunate enough to work with Tony, Danny and Rik at Virgin Net.

I was in my mid-20s. I was an Astrophysicist and knew a bit about software. I had my own naive views of how the web might bring about the democratisation of information – both through bottom-up action and by redirecting mass-media – I had more than a little to learn.

I certainly wasn’t Wired. My move to London was enough of a culture shock – I remember my first meeting about “online community” – listening to Marketing define it as “everyone inside the M25″, me trying to describe the 800 person village on a small Scottish Island I grew up in, Tony describing Colours Magazine and Danny talking about the real things people were doing. I don’t think any of us actually understood each other.

I spent most of my 4 years at Virgin listening, watching, experimenting and learning how a coincidence of desires is impossible to execute – even within relatively small, exceptionally talented and committed team inside an international brand. Over the last 9 years I’ve learned a bit more about multi-dimensional communication; and the many impossible balances between corporate, social and personal objectives.

This global coincidence of desires is fueling collisions across all our spaces (”convergence” is never anything but a collision). The catalyst is our looming potential self-destruction – our “Resource Crisis” now encapsulates Climate Change and Peak Oil, Energy, Water and Landfill shortages, the depletion of raw materials, globalisation, the list goes on…

Each year I re-read Danny’s “What nearly happened” to remind myself how that time felt, and to re-contextualise one of the most important statements in it, a point that Tony made: “can’t everyone define the future?”.

Apart from great insights backed by luck, I’m not sure anyone understood how the web would really manifest itself today, and how long it would take. I spent at least 5 years attempting to get a YouTube-like idea off the ground, but the serendipity wasn’t fully aligned until 2 years after I stopped trying.

At ETech this year, Tom Loosemore summarised MySociety’s 5 step process for changing civil society, which includes “Leave for X years”.

Now we’re in a space where we are starting to seriously address the combination of cloud, grid and edge, open APIs, open data, openID and oAuth – watching the unfurling of everybody, unpacking system that “dump excess energy in the form of structure” [Burke] and scratching the surfaces of digital identity management.

All these are arriving, coincidentally, at exactly the time we need them – not just in a technological sense, but driven by a global consciousness that we all know: that, really, we need to do this to address sustainable living.

Friends who’ve been pushing the environmental agenda for decades have a tough time right now, having everyone else come in an “own” their parade, but mass-adoption rarely recognises the small army of dedicated individuals who created the movement. It’s a painful transition but we need them all to help us work out what’s next even if it is “move all the towns“.

The fascinating thing for me is watching the whole sustainability space not only collide with itself, but with a broader, globally connected consciousness, driven by a Resource Crisis that will affect every living thing.

The personal desire to catalyse change has been evident in every single person I’ve met over the last 3 years, from politicians to scientists, from bands to hedge funds, from engineers to activists: “everybody”.

Our challenge lies in creative execution: to create many granular, networked spaces that can flourish. How can we let these networks flourish and not only create value for them, but redefine what value means in the process? The words are coming: “Creative Capitalism“, “Philalthrocapitalism” but you have to assume that these are the sticking-plasters of change, similar to the early old-media references to the Net, rather than the radical re-engineering that’s needed. That re-engineering will, most likely, come from unexpected places.

2008-07-20 (Sun)

The Great Global Warming Swindle swindle

July 20th, 2008 by Gavin

Further to the outcry at the time, this weekend The Guardian reports;

“Channel 4 to be censured over controversial climate film”

“Channel 4 misrepresented some of the world’s leading climate scientists … Ofcom is expected to censure the network … but … it did not breach the regulator’s broadcasting code and did not materially mislead viewers.”

I’m certainly looking forward to reading how it’s possible to misrepresent the world’s leading climate scientists without misleading viewers.

The key quote seems to be “One source said both sides would be able to claim victory after a bitter dispute” which sounds like diplomacy has won over decisiveness and truth.

2008-07-7 (Mon)

Cloudcast :: a next step in the evolution of broadcast

July 7th, 2008 by Gavin

At last, I think the nature of [AV] transmission is beginning to reveal itself.

Do we need a new term? Probably – many other terms (p2p, broadcast, webcast, bitcast, torrent, web2.0, hive, etc) all describe an evolutionary step, so it does make sense to have a phrase to describe this one (note that edgecasting has already been monopolised by the CDN community and doesn’t actually describe “edge” in the context we need it to).

Cloudcasting is a term to describe usage of cloud (or meta-cloud) infrastructure to super-distribute content to, and from, edge devices.

Design requirements

:: Addressability
Permanent, guessable, as per the Coatsian rules of linkage.

:: Viewer Identity Management
Viewer-controlled at the edge, as per the O’Brien rule of Digital Identity Management.

:: Distributed storage
Both at the edge and in the cloud, as per the Loosemore box of imposs and the O’Brien rule of infinite scaling.

:: Open, anonymous publishing
Via tor networks, embedded on every mobile, home router, myth … devices.

:: Access control and content-owner identity tracking
Enabling edge-to-edge rights-control and reporting for those who want/need it. Commercially-enabling is important.

A cloudcast needs to enable content owners to be identified so that they can be paid (via direct and/or syndication channels) but doesn’t need to explicitly identify users, only views, which can be managed via oauth-escrow.

A p2p+tor+S3+mythTV+hive+impossibox mash-up, but with good addressability…?

2008-07-4 (Fri)

Fundamental UK science under threat

July 4th, 2008 by Gavin

The Science and Technology Facilities Council in the UK has managed to create a terrible situation which could destroy fundamental research across the country. This would have a devastating impact on not just the lives of people who have dedicated themselves to their fields, and not just to the UK’s reputation, but would be a massive loss for everyone.

One institution, Jodrell Bank (where I used to work), is listed as “threatened” (BBC News), and this story a great showcase for what’s at stake.  What’s really at stake isn’t even visible, so I’m going to use JB to give tiny insights into what this could mean for a broad community of brilliant minds and projects, and what we might lose that we can’t imagine and can’t measure.

In true British fashion, Jodrell is an example of how spectacular scientific endeavour is completely under-represented and unappreciated in the UK.  We have a world-class, thought-leading, inspirational, world-changing, unique facility, and it’s not considered as an imperative to sustain.

Jodrell (with MERLIN) is as powerful as the Hubble Space Telescope. It has been for over 15 years. (I believe Nasa spend more on marketing the HST than Jodrell’s entire budget).

I went to visit some friends at Jodrell a few years back and as they we updating me on some of the progress a few nuggets dropped into the conversation – like the fact that more data was flowing across the MERLIN network than the WHOLE of the UK internet. One of the engineers showed me their own self-build multi-gigabit router (because nothing commercial was quite cutting it).

Jodrell was instrumental in Apollo missions. It was the only instrument in the Western Hemisphere that could track Sputnik. It led to the discovery of Pulsars. It helps us map the entire universe. It finds new physics.

The people who work in this field, using instruments like Jodrell,  help not only to literally uncover the mysteries of “life, the universe and everything”, but to create fundamentally new technologies, push boundaries and inspire generations to drive innovation – they do this as a side-effect to their daily work. One colleague wrote 100,000 lines of PERL to help with data processing tasks, so they could carry out their own astrophysics research.  I was part of an international team of about 10 people managing about 1 million lines of Fortran that carried out data and image processing.

While I was there (in 1993-95) I helped to set up their first website. We did this in our lunch breaks, as a means to an end – helping to share information.

Of course it’s not just Jodrell, it’s all the fundamental research that we use to fuel  our innovation, which ultimately fuels our economy, and could help us address the many global issues that we face as a species.

To find ourselves in a situation where this level of innovation is threatened is, at best, atrocious, at worst immoral.

2008-05-20 (Tue)

Quite pleased about this…

May 20th, 2008 by Gavin

Gavin Starks in the Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

For (mostly my own) reference, here’s a scan of the printed version

Gavin Starks in the Telegraph

Thanks to Wendy.

2008-05-13 (Tue)

Dopplr and PMOG

May 13th, 2008 by Gavin

Some people are too clever by half.

Dopplr on PMOG

(to the dopplr, batbit)

Flying with radar, gaming trashes the internet, passively.

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